Error
  • SERVER_CONNECT_FAILED, failed to open stream: php_network_getaddresses: getaddrinfo failed: Name or service not known
Close
< June 2018 >
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
 
 
 
 
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
 

Stock Index
Bahana Securities

23 Jun 2018 | 07:19 WIB
INDEX
SCORE
POIN
%
COMPOSITE
6.067,087
52,268
0,869%
Last 1 day
IDX30
526,492
3,551
0,679%
Last 1 day
MBX
1.718,699
17,373
1,021%
Last 1 day
DBX
964,133
-1,999
-0,207%
Last 1 day
KOMPAS100
1.248,419
12,390
1,002%
Last 1 day
BISNIS-27
530,769
4,503
0,856%
Last 1 day

Currencies
Bahana Securities

23 Jun 2018 | 07:19 WIB
KURS
BUY
SELL

Auto prospect: No horse power

Based on sales figures released by Gaikindo (4W association), March 2016 sales reached 94k units (exhibit 1), -5.5% y-y, translating to 3M16 auto sales declined of -5.4% y-y. For motorcycles, AISI (2W association) reported February sales of 563k units (exhibit 2), +3.1% y-y, although 3M16 figure still contracted - 6.3% y-y.

In March, ASII's market share reached 49.1% (Feb-16: 47.0%; Mar-15: 50.2%) with monthly sales of 46.2k units, -7.5% y-y.


For Nissan, monthly sales of 2.3k units, severely dropped -54% y-y. On Honda, the brand continued its strong momentum, booking monthly sales of 20k units, +47% y-y, supported by its new model Honda BRV.


Based on our channel checks (exhibit 3), we are seeing higher discounts across the board in April compared to March. In April, the Toyota Avanza is being discounted by IDR17mn (8.4%), higher than the IDR15mn (7.4%) level in March. Daihatsu Xenia is being discounted by even more at IDR20mn (11.1%).


Note that there was an IIMS 2016 motor exhibition (7-17 April), which could push up discounts as well. However, we expect the average 2016 discount level to hover around the current level, slightly lower compared to last year's.


On the 2W front, Honda’s March 2W sales (ASII) reached 440k units, +17% y-y, reflecting a higher market share of 78.1% (Feb-16: 69.1%; Mar-15: 68.9%).

On ASII's competitor, Yamaha, booked even lower sales of 108k units, -26% y-y, reflecting a lower market share of 19.2% (Feb-16: 26.9%; Mar-15: 26.7%). We believe that higher scooter demand positively affected Honda’s market share.


In our view, we expect the intense competition and resulting discounts to persist in the medium term, especially as several brands will be launched in the market in 2017.

Given our longer-term GDP growth of 5.2-5.3%, we believe that the Indonesia auto sector will experience a CAGR of only 7% in 2016-20 compared to 15% y-y in the commodity boom years (2007-2013). For the 2W sales, we forecast a likely growth of just 3% y-y during the same period. Our conservative view is backed by ASII’s disappointing 1Q16 financials with 4W revenue of IDR14tn, -16% q-q and -10% y-y, caused by its business realignment as several Auto 2000’s sub-dealer is currently buy Toyota’s products directly to TAM (Toyota’s sole national distributor).


On the bottom line, ASII’S 1Q16 net profit came off -22% y-y, below our and consensus' projections. Despite stronger IDR, ASII’s auto equity income was down -7% y-y due to lower factory uitilization rate. Moreover, ASII’s auto segment other income plunged -48% q-q and -30% y-y as ASII lost some administration income from Auto 2000’s sub dealers.


At this stage of the market cycle, we expect Indonesia's longer term auto outlook to remain unexciting on more intense competition, and we advise equity investors in ASII to take profit due to expensive auto division 2016 PE in excess of 20x, compared to a regional average of less than 16x.

❮ Back to previous page