Error
  • SERVER_CONNECT_FAILED, failed to open stream: php_network_getaddresses: getaddrinfo failed: Name or service not known
Close
< June 2018 >
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
 
 
 
 
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
 

Stock Index
Bahana Securities

23 Jun 2018 | 07:19 WIB
INDEX
SCORE
POIN
%
COMPOSITE
6.067,087
52,268
0,869%
Last 1 day
IDX30
526,492
3,551
0,679%
Last 1 day
MBX
1.718,699
17,373
1,021%
Last 1 day
DBX
964,133
-1,999
-0,207%
Last 1 day
KOMPAS100
1.248,419
12,390
1,002%
Last 1 day
BISNIS-27
530,769
4,503
0,856%
Last 1 day

Currencies
Bahana Securities

23 Jun 2018 | 07:19 WIB
KURS
BUY
SELL

La Niña watch: Here comes the rain

A La Niña weather pattern is expected to develop during the Northern Hemisphere during the summer of 2016, with about a 75% chance of occurrence during the fall and winter of 2016-17 (exhibit 1), according to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

La Nina occurs when the temperature of the ocean surface in the western part of Sumatera is warmer than that in east coast of Africa, creating water vapor and affecting regions such as the western part of North Sumatera; the western part of West Sumatera; South Sumatera; Lampung; the west part of Java; Kalimantan; Sulawesi and Papua.

Due to La Nina’s unusual weather pattern, the National Disaster Mitigation Agency has cautioned for unusual precipitation during this year’s dry season in July, August and September. However, even during June, with less than a 50% probability, the rainy season in Indonesia has been much heavier than usual. Based on our channel check, rainfall in Sumatra, for example, has been the heaviest in the past 10 years.

This should have the following impact on our covered stocks and sectors:

Winners:
Cigarettes: stick sales typically increase during the rainy season. Healthcare: higher sales due to flu-related illnesses caused by the rains. CPO: prices could rise on lower production due to soil shock caused by heavy rains as well as the inability of workers to optimally harvest. Tin: possible lower to flat production volumes for TINS, resulting in higher tin prices, although this could be offset by higher costs stemming from increased onshore mining as the sea becomes unfriendly.

Losers:
Retailers: bad for retailers in general as people tend to stay home and shop less during the rainy season; this is particularly true for RALS’s low-end shoppers who do not own cars. Taxi: the rise in the number of passengers during rainy days could be offset by heavy traffic and the preference to stay indoors. Nickel: as Indonesia is not a major producer of refined nickel, prices are unlikely to move up in a major way, while furnaces would not be working optimally during heavy rains, leading to lower or flat production output. Coal: as only the world’s fifth largest producer, the country’s lower coal output may not translate into sufficiently high coal prices to benefit producers, while coal’s higher moisture content could lead to lower selling prices.

❮ Back to previous page